Although numerous awe-inspiring Black films were eligible for a Best Picture nomination at this year's Golden Globes, they were snubbed in the category. While the outcome isn't entirely shocking, it further proves just how far major film awards have to go to be truly inclusive.
With the Oscars on the horizon, nomination predictions are already being discussed. Will the Academy Award's Best Picture nominations be comparable to those of the Golden Globes'? Here's a brief look at the possibility.
Historically, the Globes aren't a good predictor of the Oscars. If a film is a big winner at the Golden Globes, it doesn't always mean the Academy will follow suit. Just last year, for example, Parasite won Best Picture at the Oscars but the film wasn't even nominated for Best Picture at the Globes.
In fact, over the past ten years, the two award shows have only shared 50 percent of their Best Picture winners. What's more, according to a 2013 analysis by writer Nate Silver, the Golden Globes only have a 48 percent chance of predicting the Oscars' Best Picture winner in a given year.
Another important note, the Golden Globes include two Best Picture categories -- one for Drama and one for Musical or Comedy. This restricts both categories in a way the Oscars' single Best Picture category doesn't. Consequently, looking to the Golden Globe's nominations to predict the Oscars' isn't an especially reliable tactic.
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The only nominee for Best Picture at the Golden Globes with Black leads is Hamilton, a filmed play that is ineligible for the Oscars' Best Picture category. Fortunately, however, quite a few Black films are eligible for an Oscar nomination. Here are four that stand out among the rest:
Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods is currently on everyone's radar, especially because Delroy Lindo is expected to be a lock for a nomination in the Oscars' Best Actor category. The film centers around a group of four vets who return to Vietnam to search for their squad leader's remains as well as the gold they buried during the war. The film may have been robbed of recognition at the Golden Globes, but it's still likely to be a nominee in a few major categories at this year's Oscars, including Best Picture.
Another strong contender for a Best Picture nod is George C. Wolfe’s adaptation of August Wilson’s play Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Starring the late Chadwick Boseman, the film was one of the most anticipated of the 2021 awards season. Complete with a profound story and captivating performances, the odds are also in favor of Boseman receiving a Best Actor nomination for his role.
Part period piece, part thriller, Shaka King's Judas and the Black Messiah is perhaps one of the year's most impactful Best Picture contenders. The film features an all-star cast and expertly covers various historical figures and events. Although the story takes place in the '60s, it feels as relevant now as ever.
Regina King's One Night in Miami garnered much deserved Oscar buzz following its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in September. Aside from Best Picture, the film is likely to be nominated in several major categories, including Best Director. If King can land a nomination, it would make her the first Black woman and only the sixth Black director nominated in the category.
Other films that merit Oscar consideration for Best Picture are Malcolm & Marie, The Forty-Year-Old Version, and Soul, which is not eligible for Best Picture at the Golden Globes,
Furthermore, the Oscars can include up to 10 nominees in its Best Picture category. Since the nomination of musicals and/or comedies is rare, it's unlikely most of the Globes' Musical or Comedy nominees are in the running for the Oscars. As a result, several of the Globes' snubbed Black films could very well be nominated instead.
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