The 93rd Academy Awards come somewhat belated this year, bringing movie buffs their Oscar winners live from Union Station and the Dolby Theater in Los Angeles, California. However, while a lot is different about this year compared to Oscars of the past, fans of the silver screen still view the ceremony as competitive as ever.
Sorting out what will probably win from what you want to win is never easy, but for any movie buffs filling out an Oscar ballot, it helps to have an idea of the frontrunners. These are the top contenders in all 23 categories for the 2021 Oscars.
As contentious as the top category may seem this year, it's hard to deny the track record of Nomadland this award season, as it's already taken home the Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, Producers Guild Award, Venice's Golden Lion Award and the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award. With that kind of resume, the intimate road movie following Frances McDormand as a woman reflecting on freedom, society, and self-sufficiency seems like a titan to beat. Still, in a post-Parasite world, anything can happen, and Minari may be the dark horse to keep an eye on.
Not since Peter Finch's 1977 win for Network has an actor won the Best Actor award posthumously, but with the Ma Rainey's Black Bottom actor sweeping the category at other ceremonies, it seems a surefire bet that Chadwick Boseman will repeat Finch's success. There were strong performances across the board in this category where other nominees like Riz Ahmed or Anthony Hopkins had more definitively "lead" roles, but if the Best Supporting Actor category is any indication, it's hard to tell what the Academy considers a supporting role.
While Best Picture and Lead Actor appear to be shoe-ins, it's the Lead Actress category that stands out to be the most wildly competitive. Few can agree who will take home the gold when all nominees so readily deserve it, but Viola Davis' role as the titular Ma Rainey is likely the safest bet. Following her win for Supporting Actress in Fences, it only makes sense for her to progress to the lead category, and the role of Ma Rainey gave her a brash and vibrant character to work with.
Perhaps nothing demonstrates the absurdity of the standards differentiating a lead from a supporting character than Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield both being nominated for Judas and the Black Messiah when they both play the title roles. Leslie Odom Jr. and Sacha Baron Cohen were similarly arbitrary choices in One Night in Miami... and Trial of the Chicago 7, respectively, where ensemble casts meant there were no leads. Regardless, Kaluuya's performance as the Black Panther leader Fred Hampton outshines all the rest in communicating its subject's electrifying charisma.
None of the acting categories have as diverse an array of performances as Supporting Actress this year, and yet Minari's Yuh-Jung Youn still takes the spot of the favorite to win following her SAG win. Over the course of Minari, the actress plays a whole range of emotions, be they happiness, anger, hurt or even sheer silliness, and she does them all beautifully. It's a wonder that a first-time nominee could elbow out Academy darlings like Glenn Close and Olivia Coleman, but frankly, her role just gave her more to do.
Many of the major categories tend to follow the same trend as the Academy's preferences become apparent over the night, and if Nomadland is set to win Best Picture, then its director Chloé Zhao will likely take home a gold statue for herself. With such an introspective story and the jaw-dropping landscapes of the American West available to her, Zhao had a lot to work with, but perhaps most impressive of all was her ability to draw out such engaging performances from real-life nomads with little to no acting experience.
Adapted Screenplay can be a tough category to judge as there are a few different ways to think about the category. It can be viewed purely as a general writing category or a gauge of specifically the art of adaptation depending on how you look at it, but by both metrics, One Night in Miami... deserves the win. Based on a stage play fictionalizing a real night shared by Cassius Clay, Sam Cooke, Jim Brown and Malcolm X, the script is packed with dialogue that carries its audience through the story. Expertly balanced to represent a diverse cast of personalities and viewpoints, the more ambitious script could likely beat its more intimate competition.
While both screenplay categories are extremely competitive this year and it's difficult to choose a frontrunner among them, Promising Young Woman stands out as an achievement the Academy will likely recognize. Often referred to as the epitome of a #MeToo-era film, writer/director Emerald Finell's script focuses on the deeply relevant story of a young woman out for revenge against men who consider themselves to be good guys even while committing sexual assault. The script cleverly targets not only the aggressors but the surrounding society and infrastructure that enables them. For its deft navigation of such a difficult topic, this film deserves its praise.
Perhaps no nominee is a safer bet to win its category than Soul for Best Animated Film as Pixar and Disney inevitably prove to be juggernauts in the category every year. The few exceptions took huge stars and massive productions to pull off their wins, and Soul's touching tale about passion and purpose is one of the studio's best films. Still, it's a shame that Wolfwalkers doesn't stand a better chance as its inventive and dazzling animation combine with a touching story about Irish folklore to form one heck of a film.
There were a lot of notable snubs in Documentary Feature this year and the category is severely competitive, but it may be the exposure of My Octopus Teacher on Netflix that helps earn it the win. Already taking home the BAFTA and the Producers Guild of America Award. the documentary clearly has an edge. But its emotional journey following a man documentary every day in the life of an octopus has universal appeal most anyone can enjoy.
Short Documentary is one of the hardest categories for audiences to access, and with each one covering such a diverse range of important topics, it's a real shame. From childhood hunger in Yemen and the French resistance to the pro-democracy protests of Hong Kong and the LA uprisings of 1991, there are major issues each nominee grapples with. But A Concerto is a Conversation will likely take the win for its experimental technique and its intimate look at a relationship that can speak to anybody.
With the film earning a further nomination in Best Director but failing to make the mark in Best Picture, Another Round somehow simultaneously gets the credit it deserves and not enough. The film balances and intertwines comedy and drama better than any other nominee as it follows a group of Danish men on the cusp of a mid-life crisis. Deciding they will get drunk every day but within strict parameters, their desperate balancing acts to reinvigorate their lives without becoming alcoholics is perfect dramedy.
Given that Nomadland's director Chloe Zhao edited her film and it's already contending for editing elsewhere it could win, but when evaluating the nominees, it's hard to ignore the masterful work of The Father. The editing becomes crucial to the story as the addled protagonist mixes up years, days, and moments of his life. Elevating its source material from a stage play by utilizing the editing room as a resource, it becomes almost impossible to divorce the importance of the film's editing from the rest of its story.
Yet again it's hard not to put Nomadland up as the leader, but here, the choice is a lot easier. While there is no doubting the camera work of films like Mank, Trial of the Chicago 7 and Judas and the Black Messiah, those films didn't have the wide-open vistas and landscape to work with that Nomadland did. While News of the World certainly had its fair share of beautiful locations, Zhao's self-reflective picture leaves so much of its content up to visual storytelling that its cinematography is really able to shine.
Sound of Music just does an unparalleled job of weaving its sonic elements into its tale. This new category is a mixture of sound editing and sound mixing from years past, and this is the perfect film to inaugurate it. Sound of Metal is the tale of a deaf drummer struggling to adjust and desperate to regain his hearing, and never before has the viewer's decision whether not to use closed captions been so crucial to a viewing experience.
Once again, prominence bolsters a film's chances at success, as Soul's music was an inextricable part of what the film was. With Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross both nominated for Mank in the same category, it's clear that the Academy likes the way they sound, and when put on display in Soul's story, their musical talents really shine. Da 5 Blooods managed to make music a prominent part of its story without the story being about music and Minari and News of the World were extremely understated by comparison, but Soul is still the easy frontrunner.
One Night in Miami... may not have been about music, but it brought music into the story through Sam Cooke's legendary presence, and his portrayal by actor Leslie Odom Jr. is pitch-perfect. Odom Jr. dazzled audiences with his musical performance as Aaron Burr in Hamilton, and now, he's taken things a step further with "Speak Now," a song about civil rights that serves as a call to action This category is far from a lock, but this is a choice you can feel good about.
So often the costume category goes straightaway to whatever period piece had the most elaborate designs, and by that metric, Emma easily takes the cake. Featuring an array of gorgeous costumes showing the full range of English high society, there is certainly a lot to appreciate. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom could be a spoiler in this category since it similarly feels the niche of a period piece, but it's hard to deny that Emma is the more intricately designed of the two.
More so than in its costuming, it's the makeup and hairstyling of Ma Rainey's Black Bottom where it truly shines. With particular attention to its title character, the film manages to convey the aesthetic of its time in a unique fashion unseen in period films set in a similar era. The sense of touch is visually communicated through the screen as the glistening sweat of the characters becomes an uncomfortable heat for the viewer empathizing with them, and when tensions boil over, the audience feels every bubble that leads to it.
Period pieces are further favored in production design where the monumental task of bringing the past into the present becomes a crucial part of a film. Not only does Mank accomplish exactly that, transporting audiences to its old Hollywood setting or Herman Mankiewicz's private cabin with similar ease, but it does so with a setting as famously gargantuan as Heart Castle. The only true competitor would be The Father, whose shifting environment displays clever subtlety compared to Mank's bombastic success.
Director Christopher Nolan excels at uniting the world of cerebral arthouse theater with that of big-budget blockbusters, and Tenet comes as the latest progression of that unity. Whereas the director's previous ventures dealt with space, dreams and magic, Tenet allows him to explore the nature of time, and the visual effects really bring that to life. The only name as big as Tenet's among the nominees is Mulan, and by comparison, the effects in Nolan's film are leaps and bounds greater in terms of raw inventiveness.
As mentioned, beating Disney and Pixar in the animated category is a Herculean task, but If Anything Happens I Love You cuts right through to the heart of its viewer where this category really matters. Focused on two grieving parents grappling with their future and past in the wake of their child's death during a school shooting, this short certainly packs a punch. With gun violence such a salient issue in the United States and the short's exposure bolstered by its inclusion on Netflix, If Anything Happens I Love You's raw emotion may just win out.
It's hard to deny star power like Oscar Isaac's, and with his characteristic charisma, The Letter Room is a pretty solid bet in a category that's perpetually hard to get a bead on. The story follows a correctional officer's journey into the letter room of the prison where he works, allowing for reflection on letters to death row inmates that change how he and the audience look at life. The Letter Room is a memorable piece Academy voters are likely to reward.
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